2004 United States presidential election in Michigan

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2004 United States presidential election in Michigan

← 2000 November 2, 2004 2008 →
Turnout64.7% Increase [1]
  John F. Kerry.jpg George-W-Bush.jpeg
Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Massachusetts Texas
Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney
Electoral vote 17 0
Popular vote 2,479,183 2,313,746
Percentage 51.23% 47.81%

MichiganPresidentialElection2004.svg
County Results

President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Michigan took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 17 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Michigan was won by Democrat nominee John Kerry by a 3.4% margin of victory. Although no Republican carried this state in a presidential election since 1988, early polling showed the race was a toss-up, thus was considered as a possible target for the Republicans. Later polling favored Kerry, leading half of the news organizations predicted Kerry would win the state, but the other half still considered it a swing state.

Although Michigan was also not carried by the winner of the 2000 presidential race, 2004 also marked the first time since 1976 in which the state was not carried by the candidate who led in the overall popular vote. As of 2019, this is the most recent election in which Michigan would vote for the losing candidate.

Caucuses[edit]

Campaign[edit]

Predictions[edit]

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[2]

  1. D.C. Political Report: Slight Democrat
  2. Associated Press: Toss-Up
  3. CNN: Kerry
  4. Cook Political Report: Lean Democrat
  5. Newsweek: Leans Kerry
  6. New York Times: Leans Kerry
  7. Rasmussen Reports: Toss-Up
  8. Research 2000: Lean Kerry
  9. Washington Post: Battleground
  10. Washington Times: Leans Kerry
  11. Zogby International: Kerry
  12. Washington Dispatch: Kerry

Polling[edit]

Pre-election polling did show a close race early on, but in the fall election Kerry pulled away and won every poll since the month of September. The last 3 poll average showed Kerry leading 49% to 46%.[3]

Fundraising[edit]

Bush raised $4,960,010.[4] Kerry raised $2,496,203.[5]

Advertising and visits[edit]

In the fall campaign, Bush visited the state ten times. Kerry visited seven times. Both candidates combined spent over $2 million in advertising each week,[6] but Kerry spent slightly more each week.[7]

Analysis[edit]

The state has competitive suburban counties with a large Roman Catholic population. Kerry won this state with 51%. George W. Bush performed moderately well, but below potential. In the state, Bush won a majority of the counties and congressional districts, but below potential in suburban counties of Oakland and Macomb. Bush's lack of attention to economic issues important to Michigan voters may have been a reason for Kerry's win. Kerry won 70% of Wayne County, Detroit. Both Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush won the state of Michigan.

Results[edit]

2004 United States presidential election in Michigan
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic John Kerry 2,479,183 51.3% 17
Republican George W. Bush (incumbent) 2,313,746 47.8% 0
Independent Ralph Nader 24,035 0.5% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik 10,552 0.2% 0
Green David Cobb 5,325 0.1% 0
US Taxpayers Michael Peroutka 4,980 0.1% 0
Natural Law Walt Brown 1,431 0.0% 0
Totals 4,839,252 100.00% 17
Voter turnout (Voting Age Population) 64.2%

Results breakdown[edit]

By county[edit]

County Kerry Bush Others Total votes
% # % # % #
Alcona County 43.96% 2,871 55.00% 3,592 1.04% 68 6,531
Alger County 50.26% 2,395 48.65% 2,318 1.09% 52 4,765
Allegan County 35.90% 19,355 63.11% 34,022 0.98% 530 53,907
Alpena County 48.70% 7,407 50.39% 7,665 0.91% 139 15,211
Antrim County 37.24% 5,072 61.52% 8,379 1.23% 168 13,619
Arenac County 49.61% 4,076 49.55% 4,071 0.84% 69 8,216
Baraga County 45.06% 1,660 53.66% 1,977 1.28% 47 3,684
Barry County 37.37% 11,312 61.57% 18,638 1.06% 322 30,272
Bay County 54.42% 31,049 44.60% 25,448 0.98% 562 57,059
Benzie County 44.83% 4,383 54.04% 5,284 1.14% 111 9,778
Berrien County 43.99% 32,846 55.01% 41,076 1.00% 749 74,671
Branch County 38.98% 7,004 60.02% 10,784 1.00% 179 17,967
Calhoun County 47.70% 29,891 51.21% 32,093 1.09% 683 62,667
Cass County 42.02% 9,537 57.12% 12,964 0.86% 196 22,697
Charlevoix County 40.52% 5,729 58.09% 8,214 1.39% 196 14,139
Cheboygan County 42.78% 5,941 56.15% 7,798 1.07% 148 13,887
Chippewa County 43.69% 7,203 55.33% 9,122 0.99% 163 16,488
Clare County 49.09% 6,984 49.82% 7,088 1.08% 154 14,226
Clinton County 40.95% 15,483 58.16% 21,989 0.89% 335 37,807
Crawford County 43.21% 3,126 55.52% 4,017 1.27% 92 7,235
Delta County 48.76% 9,381 50.32% 9,680 0.92% 177 19,238
Dickinson County 41.70% 5,650 57.08% 7,734 1.22% 165 13,549
Eaton County 45.58% 25,411 53.41% 29,781 1.01% 563 55,755
Emmet County 39.41% 6,846 59.48% 10,332 1.12% 194 17,372
Genesee County 60.34% 128,334 39.43% 83,870 0.23% 489 212,693
Gladwin County 43.20% 6,343 46.10% 6,770 10.70% 1,571 14,684
Gogebic County 52.20% 4,421 46.46% 3,935 1.35% 114 8,470
Grand Traverse County 39.86% 18,256 59.93% 27,446 0.21% 96 45,798
Gratiot County 42.45% 7,377 56.59% 9,834 0.97% 168 17,379
Hillsdale County 35.23% 7,123 63.34% 12,804 1.43% 289 20,216
Houghton County 42.46% 6,731 56.08% 8,889 1.46% 231 15,851
Huron County 43.68% 7,629 55.37% 9,671 0.95% 166 17,466
Ingham County 57.78% 76,877 41.14% 54,734 1.08% 1,442 133,053
Ionia County 38.55% 10,647 60.18% 16,621 1.27% 350 27,618
Iosco County 46.82% 6,557 52.13% 7,301 1.06% 148 14,006
Iron County 49.38% 3,215 49.52% 3,224 1.11% 72 6,511
Isabella County 50.57% 12,334 48.19% 11,754 1.24% 302 24,390
Jackson County 43.21% 31,025 55.75% 40,029 1.03% 741 71,795
Kalamazoo County 51.31% 61,462 47.71% 57,147 0.98% 1,174 119,783
Kalkaska County 38.05% 3,189 60.67% 5,084 1.28% 107 8,380
Kent County 40.19% 116,909 58.85% 171,201 0.96% 2,781 290,891
Keweenaw County 43.78% 630 54.27% 781 1.95% 28 1,439
Lake County 50.99% 2,675 47.71% 2,503 1.30% 68 5,246
Lapeer County 40.97% 18,086 57.89% 25,556 1.14% 505 44,147
Leelanau County 43.46% 6,048 55.57% 7,733 0.98% 136 13,917
Lenawee County 44.22% 20,787 54.61% 25,675 1.17% 550 47,012
Livingston County 36.26% 33,991 62.79% 58,860 0.95% 891 93,742
Luce County 36.94% 1,045 61.82% 1,749 1.24% 35 2,829
Mackinac County 42.72% 2,819 56.16% 3,706 1.12% 74 6,599
Macomb County 48.75% 196,160 50.24% 202,166 1.01% 4,084 402,410
Manistee County 49.23% 6,272 49.41% 6,295 1.36% 173 12,740
Marquette County 53.60% 17,412 45.22% 14,690 1.19% 386 32,488
Mason County 43.34% 6,333 55.60% 8,124 1.05% 154 14,611
Mecosta County 43.97% 7,730 55.23% 9,710 0.80% 141 17,581
Menominee County 46.64% 5,326 52.04% 5,942 1.32% 151 11,419
Midland County 42.41% 18,355 56.31% 24,369 1.27% 551 43,275
Missaukee County 31.25% 2,319 68.12% 5,055 0.63% 47 7,421
Monroe County 48.68% 36,089 50.54% 37,470 0.77% 573 74,132
Montcalm County 42.91% 11,471 55.99% 14,968 1.10% 295 26,734
Montmorency County 39.48% 2,196 59.32% 3,300 1.20% 67 5,563
Muskegon County 55.14% 44,282 43.96% 35,302 0.91% 729 80,313
Newaygo County 39.60% 9,057 59.49% 13,608 0.91% 208 22,873
Oakland County 49.75% 319,387 49.32% 316,633 0.93% 5,957 641,977
Oceana County 44.25% 5,441 54.30% 6,677 1.46% 179 12,297
Ogemaw County 48.30% 5,215 50.52% 5,454 1.18% 127 10,796
Ontonagon County 44.44% 1,863 53.96% 2,262 1.60% 67 4,192
Osceola County 39.93% 4,467 58.98% 6,599 1.09% 122 11,188
Oscoda County 40.64% 1,792 58.29% 2,570 1.07% 47 4,409
Otsego County 37.98% 4,674 60.70% 7,470 1.32% 163 12,307
Ottawa County 27.64% 35,552 71.55% 92,048 0.81% 1,043 128,643
Presque Isle County 45.66% 3,432 52.98% 3,982 1.36% 102 7,516
Roscommon County 47.43% 6,810 51.28% 7,364 1.29% 185 14,359
Saginaw County 53.37% 54,887 45.86% 47,165 0.78% 800 102,852
St. Clair County 45.70% 36,174 53.99% 42,740 0.31% 248 79,162
St. Joseph County 38.55% 9,648 61.30% 15,340 0.15% 37 25,025
Sanilac County 37.76% 7,883 60.50% 12,632 1.74% 363 20,878
Schoolcraft County 40.84% 2,137 43.32% 2,267 15.84% 829 5,233
Shiawassee County 46.20% 16,881 53.11% 19,407 0.69% 251 36,539
Tuscola County 44.57% 12,631 54.31% 15,389 1.12% 318 28,338
Van Buren County 47.26% 16,151 51.60% 17,634 1.14% 389 34,174
Washtenaw County 63.46% 109,953 35.47% 61,455 1.07% 1,856 173,264
Wayne County 69.39% 600,047 29.81% 257,750 0.80% 6,931 864,728
Wexford County 39.80% 6,034 59.14% 8,966 1.06% 160 15,160

By congressional district[edit]

Bush won 10 of 15 congressional districts.[8]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 53% 46% Bart Stupak
2nd 60% 39% Peter Hoekstra
3rd 59% 40% Vern Ehlers
4th 55% 44% Dave Camp
5th 41% 59% Dale Kildee
6th 53% 46% Fred Upton
7th 54% 45% Nick Smith
Joe Schwarz
8th 54% 45% Mike Rogers
9th 51% 49% Joe Knollenberg
10th 57% 43% Candice Miller
11th 53% 47% Thaddeus McCotter
12th 39% 61% Sander Levin
13th 19% 81% Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick
14th 17% 83% John Conyers Jr.
15th 38% 62% John Dingell

Electors[edit]

Technically the voters of Michigan cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Michigan is allocated 17 electors because it has 15 congressional districts and two senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 17 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 17 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 17 were pledged for Kerry/Edwards:

  1. Carol Vining Moore
  2. Margaret Robinson
  3. Ida I. DeHaas
  4. Marcela L. Ort
  5. Vickie Sue Price
  6. Paul Todd
  7. Leonard Smigielski
  8. Bruce McAttee
  9. Stanley W. Harris
  10. Yvonne Williams
  11. Elizabeth D. Tavarozzi
  12. Charley Jackson
  13. Joan Robinson Cheeks
  14. Roger Short
  15. Harless Scott
  16. Richard Shoemaker
  17. Michael Pitt

References[edit]